I haven't seen them all yet, but have been in a flurry of watching this week.
these are my predictions for the major awards:

Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: Philp Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Best Actress: Feclicity Huffman - Transamerica
Best Supporting Actor - Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz - Constant Gardener

We are hosting our annual Oscar party - we Tivo it and start watching about 1/2 hour or so into the show - we can then scan through the commercials. When the presenter starts opening the envelope we put it on pause and everyone discusses the nominees casts their votes and then we start up again.