I haven't seen any of the films, so am taking a wild guess based on what I've read.

Best Movie: Crash (oscar many times likes to surprise us)
Best Director: Ang Lee (ok so usually whatever movie wins, the director wins too...)
Best Actor: Philp Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress: Feclicity Huffman
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Junebug, the one film I did see)
Best Supporting Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal

I'm only doing it because I want the statue. I need some virtual knick knacks for my virtual shelf.