The 1 August 30 day ice forecast has been released; looks like they are a bit behind schedule; we will have lots of ice for our drinks.
FECN14 CWIS 011800
THIRTY DAY ICE OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC FOR AUGUST
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 1 AUGUST 2014.
THE NEXT 30 DAY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 20 AUGUST 2014.
Summary for July 17 to 30.
Average air temperatures were below normal values over most locations
except near normal from Amundsen Gulf to Peel Sound. Ice melt was 2
weeks earlier than normal over the Beaufort Sea except near normal along
the Alaskan Coast. Over the Central Arctic and the Arctic Ocean ice melt
was 1 week later than normal. Fracture ice events haven't occurred in
Viscount Melville and Peel Sounds which are 1 week later than normal.
Weather forecast for August 1 to 31.
Average air temperatures will be near normal values over the whole
region.
Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula.
August 1 to 31.
Ice free.
Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst.
August 1 to 31.
Ice free.
Beaufort Sea south of 75°N.
August 1 to 15.
Open water within 55 miles west of Banks Island, 100 miles north of
Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and 100 miles north of Barter Island. Within 110
miles of the Alaskan Coast west of Barter Island very open to open drift
first-year ice with a trace of old ice. North of 72°N close to very close
pack old ice becoming open drift to close pack ice west of 140°W during
the second week.
August 16 to 31.
Open water within 30 miles west of Banks Island, 100 miles north of
Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and 100 miles north of Barter Island. Ice melting
completely within 120 miles of the Alaskan Coast during the third week.
North of 72°30'N close pack old ice except very open to open drift old
ice west of 140°W.
Arctic Ocean north of 75°N.
August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack old ice. Ice becoming open drift to close pack
old ice south of 76°N and west of 140°W during the second week.
August 16 to 31.
Open drift to close pack old ice south of 76°30'N and west of 140°W
becoming very open to open drift ice during the fourth week. Elsewhere
close to very close pack old ice.
Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.
August 1 to 15.
South of Wainwright ice free. North of Wainwright open drift to close
pack first-year ice with 1 tenth of old ice except for an area of open
water within 20 miles of the coast.
August 16 to 31.
Open water.
Amundsen Gulf.
August 1 to 15.
Ice near Prince of Wales Strait melting completely during the first week
then open water. Elsewhere ice free.
August 16 to 31.
Ice free.
Coronation Gulf.
August 1 to 31.
Ice free.
Queen Maud Gulf. 20 August
August 1 to 15.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice becoming very open to open drift
ice during the second week. A trace of old ice embedded in the pack ice
over the northern section.
August 16 to 31.
Ice melting completely during the third week then open water.
Victoria Strait. 19 August
August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack first-year ice with a trace of old ice.
August 16 to 31.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice with a trace of old ice becoming
very open to open drift ice during the fourth week.
Larsen Sound. 19 August alternative to Victoria Strait
August 1 to 31.
Close to very close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice.
Ice becoming open drift to close pack ice over the eastern section during
the fourth week.
Peel Sound. 18 August
August 1 to 15.
Very close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice over the extreme
southern portion. Elsewhere consolidated first-year ice with up to 2
tenths of old ice fracturing during the first week then close to very
close pack ice.
August 16 to 31.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice
becoming very open to open drift ice during the fourth week.
M'Clintock Channel.
August 1 to 15.
Consolidated old and first-year ice over the extreme northern section
fracturing during the first week then close to very close pack ice.
Elsewhere close to very close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of
old ice.
August 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack old and first-year ice becoming open drift to
close pack ice during the fourth week.
Viscount Melville Sound.
August 1 to 15.
Very close pack first-year ice with a trace of old ice over the extreme
western section. Elsewhere consolidated old and first-year ice. Ice
fracturing over the northern section during the first week and the
southern section during the second week.
August 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice
over the western section. Close to very close pack old and first-year ice
over the eastern section. Ice becoming open drift to close pack ice over
the northern section during the fourth week.
M'Clure Strait.
August 1 to 31.
Very open to open drift old ice over the western third. Elsewhere close
to very close pack first-year ice with up to 4 tenths of old ice becoming
open drift to close pack ice over the northern section during the fourth
week.
END
FECN16 CWIS 011800
THIRTY DAY ICE OUTLOOK FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARCTIC FOR AUGUST
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 1 AUGUST 2014.
THE NEXT 30 DAY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 20 AUGUST 2014.
Summary for July 17 to 30.
Average air temperatures were above normal values over most locations
except near normal over the High Arctic. Ice melt was near normal over
most locations including the eastern shore of Baffin Island except 2
weeks earlier than normal over the rest of Baffin Bay and Nares Strait.
However, fracture ice events haven't occurred west of Resolute and along
the shipping route from Norwegian Bay to southern Eureka Sound which are
1 week later than normal.
Weather forecast for August 1 to 31.
Average air temperatures will be near normal values over most locations
except above normal over Baffin Bay and Nares Strait.
Baffin Bay.
August 1 to 15.
Isolated areas of consolidated first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of
old ice in shallow bays and inlets from north of Cape Dyer to Home Bay
fracturing during the first week. Over the rest of the eastern shore of
Baffin Island from Cape Dyer to south of Pond Inlet, narrow areas of
open drift to close pack first-year ice with up to 1 tenth of old ice
becoming very open to open drift ice during the second week. Elsewhere
bergy water. Ice islands persisting over the western section.
August 16 to 31.
Ice along the eastern shore of Baffin Island melting completely during
the third week. Elsewhere bergy water. Ice islands persisting over the
western section.
Pond Inlet.
August 1 to 15.
Very open drift first-year ice with a trace of old ice over the eastern
section. Open drift to close pack first-year ice with a trace of old ice
over the western section. Ice becoming very open to open drift ice over
the whole area during the second week.
August 16 to 31.
Ice melting completely during the third week then bergy water.
Kane Basin.
August 1 to 15.
Over the western section very open drift old ice. Over the eastern
section open drift to close pack first-year ice with 3 tenths of old ice.
Ice becoming very open to open drift old and first-year ice over the
whole area during the second week. Ice islands persisting over the area.
August 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift old and first-year ice. Ice islands persisting
over the area.
Kennedy Channel.
August 1 to 15.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice over the
southern section. Close to very close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths
of old ice over the northern section. Ice islands persisting over the
area.
August 16 to 31.
Close pack old and first-year ice. Ice islands persisting over the area.
Admiralty Inlet Northern.
August 1 to 15.
Very open to open drift first-year ice melting completely near mid-
August.
August 16 to 31.
Bergy water.
Lancaster Sound.
August 1 to 15.
Bergy water over the eastern section becoming very open drift first-year
ice during the second week. Very open to open drift first-year ice over
the western section. A trace of old ice embedded in the pack ice. Ice
melting completely over the whole area near mid-August.
August 16 to 31.
Bergy water.
Prince Regent Inlet. With Bellot Strait 18 August alternative to Peel Sound
August 1 to 15.
Over the northern section very open to open drift first-year ice. Over
the southern section close to very close pack first-year ice. Ice
becoming open drift to close pack ice over the southern section during
the second week. A trace of old ice embedded in the pack ice.
August 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift first-year ice with a trace of old ice melting
completely during the fourth week.
Gulf of Boothia.
August 1 to 15.
Very close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice over the
extreme southern section. Elsewhere close to very close pack first-year
ice with a trace of old ice.
August 16 to 31.
Over the northern section open drift to close pack first-year ice with a
trace of old ice. Over the southern section close to very close pack
first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice.
Pelly Bay.
August 1 to 15.
Over the northern section very open drift old and first-year ice. Over
the southern section bergy water.
August 16 to 31.
Over the northern section very open to open drift old and first-year ice.
Over the southern section bergy water.
Barrow Strait. 17 August - Resolute
August 1 to 15.
Over the eastern section open drift to close pack first-year ice with up
to 3 tenths of old ice. Consolidated first-year ice with a trace of old
ice between Lowther and Cornwallis Islands and over the extreme
southwestern section of Barrow Strait fracturing during the first week
then close to very close pack ice. Elsewhere over the western section
close to very close pack first-year ice with up to 3 tenths of old ice.
August 16 to 31.
Over the eastern section very open to open drift first-year ice with up
to 3 tenths of old ice. Over the western section close to very close pack
first-year ice with up to 3 tenths of old ice becoming open drift to
close pack ice during the fourth week.
Wellington Channel.
August 1 to 15.
Over the northern section close to very close pack first-year ice with up
to 3 tenths of old ice becoming open drift to close pack ice during the
second week. Over the southern section close to very close pack old and
first-year ice.
August 16 to 31.
Ice becoming very open to open drift old and first-year ice over the
whole area during the third week. Ice melting completely during the
fourth week.
McDougall Sound.
August 1 to 15.
Consolidated first-year ice with a trace of old ice fracturing during the
first week then open drift to close pack ice.
August 16 to 31.
Very open drift first-year ice with a trace of old ice melting completely
during the fourth week.
Jones Sound.
August 1 to 15.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice.
August 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift first-year ice with up to 2 tenths of old ice.
Ice melting completely over the eastern section during the fourth week.
Norwegian Bay.
August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack old and first-year ice between North Kent and
Graham Islands. Elsewhere consolidated old and first-year ice fracturing
during the first week then close to very close pack ice.
August 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack old and first-year ice becoming open drift to
close pack ice during the fourth week.
Eureka Sound.
August 1 to 15.
Over the northern section close to very close pack first-year ice with 3
tenths of old ice becoming open drift to close pack ice during the second
week. Over the southern section consolidated first-year ice with 3 tenths
of old ice fracturing during the first week then close to very close pack
ice.
August 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift old and first-year ice becoming very open drift
ice during the fourth week.
END
Here is a good website that shows current yachts and rowers making transit.
http://www.enablingwebsites.com/sv_novara_track.htmlIf you click on tracks in box on top right you can see each of the seven possible routes through Northwest Passage. Route #4 is the one identified on Silversea website, Route #3 is similar just on other side of King William Island. I think we might choose Routes #5 or #6 as alternative if Peel Sound doesn't clear (I believe all ships that made it through last year used Bellot Strait (Routes #5 or #6).