Peter, I have had a perfect track record on the upgrades clearing on the Tokyo flights. For our trip tomorrow, we booked just two weeks ago and it is Obon so flights all packed. M fare was lowest option ($2441 each). At first, they said waitlist for upgrades were closed but I talked them into putting us on the list. Outbound has cleared already. I am hoping return clears in next few days. If not, I will hope for an involuntary upgrade day of flight since it is sold out. That is even better as we save PMUs.

I need to make other reservations for September (round trip) and November (one way). I hope our good luck of always clearing upgrade continues for a few more months.