REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 137.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (OWEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
130947Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 73 KNOTS AT 130947Z. TC 05P IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A
LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
ARE GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05P IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM THE NER WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER TC 05P TO THE EAST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 05P TO INCREASE TO AN INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, AN NER TO THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO
STEER TC 05P TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALSO HELP TO ACCELERATE TC 05P TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL
TRACK OVER LAND BY TAU 30 AND WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION. CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WILL ALLOW FOR TC 05P
TO REACH AND INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE TO 30
KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 96, TC 05P WILL SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND
BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, INDICATING A EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 36.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER
TAU 36 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//